Is COVID-19 surging?

Yes. If it seems like everyone you know has gotten COVID-19 in the past 3 weeks, you aren’t wrong-cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are all on the rise in the U.S.

If it seems like everyone you know has gotten COVID-19 in the past 3 weeks, you aren’t wrong-cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are all on the rise in the U.S.

Over the past 3-4 weeks, at least 4 Nerdy Girl families were hit with COVID-19, so if you feel like COVID-19 is everywhere, you are not alone. With recent holiday gatherings and return to school for many kids and college students, cases are likely to continue to rise for a bit.

Based on CDCs National Wastewater Surveillance System, viral activity levels of SARS-CoV-2 are high or very high across almost all states that participate in monitoring (see map below). In fact, infection levels based on wastewater are estimated to be 27% higher than this time last year. 

Wastewater sampling has the advantage of detecting virus shed into the toilet, shower, sink, etc. from people who have COVID-19, whether they have symptoms or not. It doesn’t rely on people actively testing for COVID-19 and reporting their results. For this reason, it can be a good indicator of rising cases.

In addition, in the last week, there was a 13% increase in the proportion of emergency department (ED) visits for COVID-19, a 20% increase in the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19, and 13% increase in the proportion of deaths due to COVID-19. 

Current ED visit rates, number of COVID-19 hospitalizations, and proportion of deaths attributable to COVID-19 are about 20-40% lower than this time last year. But the proportion of people who have gotten the updated COVID-19 shot is also very low. As of January 5th, it was estimated that only 8% of children, 19% of people aged 18 and older, and 38% of those aged 65 years and older have gotten the updated COVID-19 booster in the U.S. This means many people are more vulnerable to severe COVID-19 outcomes than they need to be.

Although the JN.1 variant (an offspring of the BA.2.86 variant) is becoming the most dominant variant, a preliminary study showed the updated vaccine to be effective at neutralizing variants closely related to XBB lineage, including JN.1. Thus, the updated shot should still provide strong protection against hospitalization and death from COVID-19.

If you haven’t gotten an updated COVID-19 vaccine yet, it is recommended for everyone aged 6 months and older regardless of what or how many previous doses you have received.

Getting the updated vaccine, along with using other layers of protection like being strategic about masking and increasing ventilation during times of high virus circulation, is our best bet for reducing the risk of getting infected in the first place and developing severe disease, getting hospitalized or dying from COVID-19 if you do get infected. To find a location to get the updated COVID-19 shot, click here.

Stay safe, stay well.

Those Nerdy Girls

[Edit: the CDC map was accidentally dropped from the version of the post published on 1/14/2024 and was added back in on 1/15/2024.]